Inflation Held.
Bond Yields Didn’t.

Two numbers came out this week, and they’re telling two different stories. Statistics Canada’s August inflation print landed this morning at 3%, unchanged from July. Meanwhile, the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield spiked to its highest level since May 2024, and lenders have already started repricing fixed mortgage rates higher in response.

Calm News For Variable

Steady inflation is genuinely good news if you’re on a variable rate. Core inflation, the number the Bank of Canada actually watches, has been sitting close to its 2% target for months. That gives the Bank no fresh reason to raise its rate. Not an exciting headline, but steady is exactly what you want to see here.

A Different Story For Fixed

Fixed rates move with bond yields, not with the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. The five year Government of Canada yield jumped to its highest level since 2024 this week, and lenders are already repricing fixed mortgages higher in response. We watched it happen in real time, a file we were finishing up this week moved 25 basis points at the same lender in a matter of days. That’s not a forecast, it already happened.

If You Have A Renewal, Refinance, Or New Build Coming

If you have a renewal, a refinance you’ve been meaning to look at, or a new build closing sometime next year, this is the week to start that conversation, not the week the offer letter shows up. A rate hold locks in today’s rate for up to 120 days while you look around, so if rates move higher before your date, you’re already protected. Getting ahead of a rate move beats reacting to one.

Every file is different. The right structure depends on your full picture, income, other debts, and what you’re trying to do.

Happy to take a look at your situation and help you figure out the timing if any of this applies to you. Reach out, no pressure, no assumptions.